Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) Aug 31, Sept 14, Sept 28 and Jan 31, Feb 14, Feb 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 01 2021 10583 45713 338 98 312 459
February 02 2021 10597 45798 337 98 286 464
February 03 2021 10637 45852 338 98 287 460
February 04 2021 10672 45956 340 98 302 439
February 05 2021 10707 46044 341 101 318 436
February 06 2021 10743 46121 342 101 289 432
February 07 2021 10767 46180 343 101 292 417
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 2.3 8.2% 24 0.21% 33 0.29%
10-19 1 3.9 13.4% 39 0.29% 51 0.37%
20-29 7 9.6 27.7% 81 0.39% 105 0.5%
30-39 4 4.1 12.7% 37 0.27% 59 0.43%
40-49 2 3.3 13.4% 39 0.37% 55 0.53%
50-59 3 2.0 7.5% 22 0.18% 42 0.33%
60-69 1 2.3 8.2% 24 0.21% 37 0.32%
70+ 4 3.0 8.9% 26 0.25% 35 0.33%
All ages 24 30.4 100% 292 0.28% 417 0.4%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 01 2021 6833 26922 205 80 191 299
February 02 2021 6833 26966 205 80 176 290
February 03 2021 6863 27042 207 83 182 303
February 04 2021 6871 27099 208 84 178 272
February 05 2021 6888 27146 209 84 178 246
February 06 2021 6902 27191 209 86 165 245
February 07 2021 6910 27245 210 86 141 229
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.4 5% 7 0.09% 15 0.19%
10-19 0 1.9 14.2% 20 0.24% 27 0.32%
20-29 4 2.0 14.9% 21 0.3% 33 0.46%
30-39 0 1.0 12.8% 18 0.21% 32 0.38%
40-49 1 2.1 12.8% 18 0.23% 35 0.45%
50-59 2 2.1 19.1% 27 0.28% 39 0.4%
60-69 0 1.3 9.9% 14 0.17% 20 0.24%
70+ 1 1.7 11.3% 16 0.22% 28 0.39%
All ages 8 12.6 100% 141 0.22% 229 0.35%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 01 2021 5134 17979 217 71 150 223
February 02 2021 5135 18003 217 71 129 222
February 03 2021 5147 18055 217 71 123 218
February 04 2021 5163 18101 218 72 127 213
February 05 2021 5179 18131 221 73 136 195
February 06 2021 5183 18154 220 72 124 177
February 07 2021 5188 18177 221 72 101 164
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.4 4% 4 0.07% 7 0.13%
10-19 0 0.4 9.9% 10 0.18% 19 0.35%
20-29 0 1.3 14.9% 15 0.33% 20 0.44%
30-39 1 0.9 7.9% 8 0.15% 17 0.31%
40-49 0 0.7 11.9% 12 0.24% 25 0.5%
50-59 1 1.6 19.8% 20 0.29% 30 0.44%
60-69 1 0.9 13.9% 14 0.22% 23 0.36%
70+ 1 1.6 17.8% 18 0.28% 23 0.36%
All ages 5 7.7 100% 101 0.22% 164 0.36%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 01 2021 11753 49242 333 73 536 675
February 02 2021 11774 49361 339 74 495 672
February 03 2021 11815 49522 340 74 516 652
February 04 2021 11843 49643 341 74 461 650
February 05 2021 11869 49775 341 74 452 652
February 06 2021 11893 49892 342 74 435 614
February 07 2021 11905 49965 341 74 402 606
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 1.4 5.5% 22 0.19% 35 0.3%
10-19 3 3.6 17.4% 70 0.42% 117 0.71%
20-29 2 5.6 27.1% 109 0.51% 156 0.73%
30-39 2 5.0 14.9% 60 0.44% 80 0.59%
40-49 1 3.0 10.4% 42 0.31% 66 0.49%
50-59 3 3.0 10.9% 44 0.31% 70 0.49%
60-69 1 2.4 8% 32 0.23% 45 0.32%
70+ 0 1.3 5.7% 23 0.18% 37 0.28%
All ages 12 25.3 100% 402 0.34% 606 0.51%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 01 2021 38020 312912 1152 251 1076 1498
February 02 2021 38085 312902 1157 251 1007 1522
February 03 2021 38164 313016 1162 251 971 1575
February 04 2021 38372 313667 1162 256 1087 1626
February 05 2021 38487 314043 1162 256 1135 1543
February 06 2021 38588 314338 1168 256 1192 1510
February 07 2021 38669 314788 1172 256 1069 1476
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 5.0 4% 43 0.07% 74 0.12%
10-19 28 27.1 23.5% 251 0.35% 313 0.44%
20-29 24 29.9 30% 321 0.31% 423 0.41%
30-39 10 10.1 11.1% 119 0.16% 182 0.24%
40-49 7 9.7 10.1% 108 0.16% 157 0.24%
50-59 5 10.4 11.4% 122 0.19% 181 0.28%
60-69 2 6.1 5.6% 60 0.11% 89 0.16%
70+ 4 4.4 4.2% 45 0.09% 57 0.12%
All ages 81 102.9 100% 1069 0.2% 1476 0.27%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 01 2021 543165 2510670 24337 5897 12994 20288
February 02 2021 544260 2512757 24460 5937 12408 19858
February 03 2021 545437 2517446 24554 5951 12466 19513
February 04 2021 546955 2523102 24634 5992 13038 18854
February 05 2021 548221 2527562 24734 6020 13003 18050
February 06 2021 549155 2531066 24824 6052 12609 17303
February 07 2021 549826 2534922 24885 6054 11478 16855
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 43 65.7 6.2% 711 0.11% 1059 0.17%
10-19 97 154.3 14.2% 1625 0.21% 2301 0.3%
20-29 95 167.3 15.9% 1822 0.24% 2639 0.35%
30-39 102 149.7 14.3% 1640 0.22% 2419 0.32%
40-49 84 144.7 13.9% 1598 0.23% 2403 0.34%
50-59 101 148.7 14.1% 1624 0.2% 2443 0.3%
60-69 68 122.7 11.3% 1297 0.17% 1900 0.25%
70+ 81 105.6 10.1% 1161 0.18% 1691 0.26%
All ages 671 1058.7 100% 11478 0.2% 16855 0.29%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 – urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
39.8 37.5 50.2 30.4 39.6 29.2%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
35.4 12.6 25.3 20%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
36.2 7.7 18.6 20.7%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
51.3 70.7 73.3 25.3 42.1 17.8%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
27 44 40.7 102.9 115.3 24%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
28.9 30.4 34.9 1058.7 1517.4 21.3%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

Column {data-width=600}

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column {data-width=200}

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

Column

Reliable Updated Visuals

Column

Modeling

Column {data-width=600}

Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.62 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-28 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5166"

Column {data-width=600}

Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red